Semifinals recap: Smash and f*cking grab

Gotham FC pulled off a miracle Sunday afternoon, grabbing a 1-0 lead right at the end of regulation time against the Orlando Pride via a direct free kick goal from Jaedyn Shaw. The win cemented their second NWSL Championship game berth in 3 years, with this result coming about despite the Bats trailing in:

• xG (0.17 vs. 1.15)

• Shots (5 vs. 11)

• Shots on target (1 vs. 2)

• Big chances (0 vs. 2)

• Passes in the attacking half (108 vs. 127)

So how did they pull it off? Did the game go according to Gotham’s plan? Did they play poorly? Are they doomed? Did Esther’s braids curse the team? Let’s get into it.

Creation issues?

The first thing that stands out here is that Gotham generated 0.17 xG. 0.17. That is the single lowest xG total that this team has created across a 90 minute game this season. And it’s the 4th lowest xG total that any team in the league has posted this season, with the 3 lower results coming from the 14th place Chicago Stars and the 10th place Houston Dash. Gotham didn’t manage a single shot on target until the 7th minute of second half stoppage time, and only created one shot total from open play. This feels like astronomical levels of bad in an NWSL semifinal game. Was it really that terrible?

First, let’s take a look at the lineup and tactics. In the quarterfinal against Kansas City, Juan Carlos Amorós opted to play Jaelin Howell further back and play with two attacking midfielders as opposed to the traditional 6-8-10 midfield that we had seen from Gotham in recent months. With Esther still out, Jaedyn Shaw started as striker, and with Gabi Portilho available for selection again, the Brazilian took the spot Shaw had been occupying on the wing. In this game against Orlando, the tactics weren’t that different but the personnel was. Although she was listed as questionable on the availability report, Esther González started and played a full 90 at striker. This meant that Jaedyn Shaw got to move back to her more natural attacking midfield position, where she played alongside Rose Lavelle. Portilho and Purce got starts again on the wing, Jaelin Howell rounded out the midfield, and we got our new normal backline of Bruninha, Sonnett, Carter, and Reale. 

Debuting a new strategy in the midfield right as playoffs start was bold, and doing it with two different midfields in the two playoff matches thus far was even bolder. On paper, this week’s lineup was a lot stronger, with Gotham’s two best attacking midfielders playing in their natural positions and the golden boot runner up finally starting at striker again. Did Rose and Jaedyn get in each other’s way? Did Esther have a rusty game?

Let’s look at the average positions of the players on the pitch in this match and in last week’s quarterfinal against Kansas City.

The interesting thing here is that this passing network looks a lot more controlled, spaced out, and frankly dominant on paper than last week’s against Kansas City, with the team’s lines looking a lot more structured and the team able to get further forward. But with the amount that Gotham was able to create, we know that this match was not nearly as good of a performance as last week’s was. When you look a little closer, things start to explain themselves. The entire attacking unit of the team is all jumbled up, with Midge Purce averaging out to the position of a striker with how much she was switching flanks (and her height on this graphic is probably a result of her tendency to take defenders on and drive the ball forward). Gabi Portilho is tucked inside, probably for similar reasons, and Rose Lavelle found herself pretty wide. Jaedyn Shaw is in about the same spot that Lavelle was in last week, which is probably a good thing, but Esther’s average position ended up being almost on the wing, which is definitely a bad thing. 

And then if we look at the passing itself, 52% of Gotham’s attempted passes this week were between 5 and 15 yards, and 33% were between 15 and 30 yards. Last week, those numbers were flipped. While numbers can’t tell a story on their own, our best guess for this was that Gotham was forced to spend a lot more time resetting and maintaining possession this game than they could actually going forward, which tells us that they were a lot more on the back foot here.

Based on the passing network above and the fact that Orlando didn’t actually generate that much in the attack this match (more on that later), we’re going to assume that Gotham playing poorly in offense was their own doing. This lineup had quite literally never played together, Gotham hadn’t played Shaw and Lavelle as double attacking midfielders since week 21 of league play, and Esther hadn’t played since October 11th. So things were a little out of sorts, and hopefully this is something the team can pull together before the championship game. A good defense will get them far, but a good offense will make the odd defensive error a lot less costly. 

Gotham did still create in this game. Let’s take a look at some of their best moments.

Moment 1: 2’

Gotham actually started this game off quite strong, making sure the majority of play was happening in their attacking half. We liked this moment for 1) the long ball forward from Jess Carter to pick out Midge Purce on the wing and 2) the tenacity everyone showed to keep possession of the ball even if it wasn’t resulting in a goal or even shots. Playing with this kind of intensity will only benefit the team.

Moment 2: 45’

Again, two things stood out to us here. 1) Midge Purce is a magician and 2) the team did a great job sticking with the ball and exerting pressure and it paid off—Gotham won a corner.

Moment 3: 84’

Holy set piece design. Jaedyn Shaw delivers the perfect ball, Lilly Reale has the perfect flick, and Sonnett nearly has the perfect finish. Wow. 

Moment 4: 90+6’

In what was meant to be the final minute of second half stoppage time, Midge Purce created some more magic with a perfectly driven low ball across the box. Unfortunately, there was some miscommunication between Lavelle and Shaw about whose ball it was and Orlando regained possession. The Pride’s Ovalle had a heavy touch that Jaedyn Shaw was able to pounce on, and as a result Ovalle resorted to fouling Lavelle just outside of the penalty area.

Moment 5: 90+7’

That foul of course gave us this Jaedyn Shaw masterclass. It took individual brilliance to place this ball perfectly, and Midge Purce’s ability to break through Orlando’s wall meant Pride goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse was stuck between defending Midge and watching the far post. This ball was played so well that either answer would have been the wrong one. The ball crashes into the back of the net, sending Gotham to their second championship appearance in 3 years.

At the end of the day, this offensive performance did leave a lot to be desired. But, it’s worth noting that the Orlando Pride, who ended the 2024 NWSL season tied with Gotham for the stingiest defense in the league, was intentionally playing a game that sacrificed their own offense to prevent Gotham from creating anything meaningful. And Gotham was smart to generate a lot of set piece opportunities as a result. Still, Gotham’s chance creation has a long way to go from here if they want to stand a chance against the Washington Spirit on Saturday.

Defensive woes?

The next thing that stands out in this statline is the fact that Gotham conceded a whole 1.15 xG. Was Orlando able to slice through Gotham’s defense as easily as the numbers suggest? Let’s take a look at some of their highest xG chances.

Chance 1: 33’, 0.60 xG

So on first glance this looks like a sitter that Gotham got incredibly lucky on. And it’s true, they did get kind of lucky that this didn’t turn into a goal despite Marta being able to get past the defense enough to send in a low cross. But Gotham’s defense still held their ground and managed a last-minute deflection that Orlando’s target Ovalle was not expecting, causing her to get only the barest of touches on the ball and send it wide. Could the team have done a better job covering the space out wide that Marta ran into? For sure, but the defense did a good job dealing with what they had in the end and preventing this from turning into a goal. 

Chance 2: 5’, 0.28 xG

Pay close attention to Lilly Reale here. While the center backs are occupied with shutting down Marta, she stays in the space that the runner has to run into and sticks with her when she gets there. Although Marta is able to get around Jess Carter in the end, Lilly Reale reads the ball perfectly, and while Opta credits Ovalle with a shot and AKB with a save here, Reale’s positioning in the end prevented any real danger.

And that’s it. The next-highest xG chance came from Jaedyn Shaw’s free kick goal, with an xG value of 0.06. Orlando did create one more significant chance in the 11th minute of second half stoppage time, forcing a save of the week out of AKB, so let’s take a look at that too. 

Chance 3: 90+11’, 0.02 xG

Yeah. Thank god for AKB.

0.90 of Orlando’s 1.17 total xG this match came from these three shots, so the numbers are a bit inflated in their favor. And what we don’t see when we highlight these three moments are the countless times that Gotham’s midfield and defense shut down Orlando attacks before they even got the chance to start. That doesn’t take away from the fact that they still managed 8 more shots this match, even if they only amounted to 0.27 xG all together. Gotham’s defense did have a shaky moment of two but otherwise didn’t have an awful game. They will be tested against the Spirit on Saturday, who will definitely do a much better job exploiting their mistakes than Orlando did, so there’s always room to tighten up.

Mentality monsters?

At the end of the day, despite everything Orlando threw at them, and despite all that they weren’t able to counter with, the Bats still came away with the win. Head coach Juan Carlos Amorós credits camaraderie with this win, saying that, “the key is you can have the individual talent – in this league everyone does – but the difference maker is when the individual talent really cares about winning not only for themselves, but for the person next to them.” 

We’re not scientists here, so we can’t say for sure that this was what brought Gotham the win. So instead we’re going to highlight some moments where we saw individual players going above and beyond both for themselves and for the team.

Looking ahead to next match

Gotham next travels to San Jose, California for the 2025 NWSL Championship match on Saturday, November 22 at 8 PM ET on CBS and Paramount+. Gotham FC will be facing off against the Washington Spirit, who are coming off of a 3.11 xG, 2-0 win against the Portland Thorns in their semifinal matchup. For the first time all season, all of the Spirit’s key pieces up top are healthy, and as a result their attack is clicking like never before. Facing what looked to us to be the most dangerous attack in the league will be a very tall task for the Bats—if we’re being completely honest, this final looks like it’s Washington’s to lose. 

Regardless of what the result ends up being, we are so unbelievably proud of the Bats for making it to the championship game in such an up and down season through so many personnel changes. So for one last time this season, Go Bats!!

Thumbnail courtesy of Gotham FC.